Last week Radio Ink presented a webinar focused on Nielsen’s January launch of the 3 Minute Change implemented for PPM markets. Programming Research Consultant Steve Allan from The Research Director Inc and I hosted the session which was moderated by Radio Ink’s Cameron Coats. https://radioink.com/2025/03/07/watch-now-radio-inks-first-rmss-webinar-available-on-demand/ The focus of the webinar, scheduled following the full release of the PPM January results, was to share and analyze the first month utilizing the new methodology.
The results are not as clear as the projections predicted by the pundits. They haven’t been as universal as was speculated. Unlike when Nielsen’s predecessor (Arbitron) launched the People Meter, Nielsen has the advantage of looking at past results. They already have the information from the past and were able to rerun and analyze previous year’s results. Rerunning the metrics using the 3 minute criteria (three individual minutes of listening in each quarter hours equates to a quarter hour of listening) as a predictor of what could and would happen was presented in advance of the launch.
There are many challenges in using past months to predict future months. We don’t know the listening level of meter holders who have left or come into the panel until after the results are posted. We cannot control how many quarter hours a meter holder who departs or arrives contributes to a month’s ratings. Listening habits are often impacted by varying factors which make it difficult to predict which formats will do well and which won’t. In pre-January projections format rankings remained stable, music formats showed a higher growth rate in AQH than spoken word formats. That’s not necessarily what we saw when the survey launched.
January’s results showed that sports stations, especially in Philadelphia, soared in the ratings. There were news/talk stations that performed better than in the recent past, too. Then you remember that The Super Bowl was during the sweep and included the Philadelphia Eagles. January had bad weather through many markets not normally impacted by winter. The Presidential inauguration was on January 20th. Add to that the uncertainty of coming out of the holidays. It is always a roll of the dice as the holiday season ends and life resumes.
All this to say that it’s too early to project what’s to come. There isn’t a clear universal format winner that’s surfaced so far. It may be months before we see a trend that leads to a level of comfort about what formats are performing better than others in the era of the 3-minute era qualifier. There are things that we do know and that should be monitored as we go through Q1. These markers could be very useful. AQH increases. Weekends matter. Ad impressions are up. Listener engagement better matches today’s world of instant gratification.
The results of the Nielsen study are very consistent with a preview shared last summer. Overall total AQH lift was in the mid-20s, and some of the demos are in the high-20s. Generally, bigger gains are seen in younger demos, formats, and markets. According to Nielsen, most of the lift is a result of the same panelist listening longer vs. new cume being identified. TSL grows more than cume with this shift. AQH grew by as much as 24-27%. Cume grew between 7-11%.
It’s too early to say anything is a trend. The value of weekends is magnified, and I am hopeful that it leads to broadcasters to upgrade the value they place on Saturday and Sunday programming. Considering and exploring four shorter breaks versus two longer stop-sets is worthy of discussion. Same for stop-set placement. Time spent listening continues to be built with repeat tune in. The “Art of the Tease” continues to be important as a way to hold an audience through the all important three minutes. The change in methodology should encourage talent to explore a change in content delivery and give a little bit about a lot of things as they move through talk breaks.
I expect that there will be programmers who will examine song turnover and that would be a smart consideration. I cannot say that based on the three minute change I would alter music rotations or the frequency with which content and bits are repeated, but it should be something evaluated following more months of results. These changes are worth of analysis. Monitor the markers for success and pay attention to how AQH grows and changes rating rank.
During our webinar, I shared my belief that advertisers and agencies may reject the idea of paying more for the increase in AQH citing “fuzzy math.” Steve Allan was right to suggest during the Radio In webinar that advertisers have been getting more ears than previously thought and those have been unpaid for or have been unaccounted. The challenge remains convincing advertising agencies that they should pay more for added AQH when the listening requirement drops to 3 minutes versus 5 minutes. Once could argue those extra impressions were the vigorish. It could also be argued that radio should be able to charge disproportionately more for this growth.
One item that would be helpful in the coming months would be for Nielsen to rerun the 12 monthly surveys for 2024. Not necessarily for all demos and daypart manipulations, but perhaps it could be topline information. The objective should be to provide enough information that enables a year-over-year comparison. I lived through the Voltair era. The ratings impact was only relative the first 12 months, but the audio processor received credit well beyond its’ inaugural year from those who knew little about audience measurement. It would be a great benefit to those of us who value Nielsen’s value as a roadmap for content creation.
Mike’s Takeaways:
It’s too early to say anything is a trend.
Weekends Matter. Don’t ignore Saturday and Sunday.
Nights have recycling value. Deliver content that can build morning ratings.
Bowtie and Hourglass stop-set positions likely remain valuable, but deserve monitoring.
Consider 4 shorter breaks versus 2 longer breaks. Experiment with one station in a cluster.
Repeat tune-in becomes all the more important.
The art of the Tease becomes even more valuable.
Give the audience a little bit about a lot of things, especially in spoken word radio.
Song turnover; worthy of evaluation and reconsideration.
Advertisers; They’ve been getting more impressions than previously thought.
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